I have been active in this market across several distinct cycles: the post-2012 recovery, the peak years of 2015-2017, the SALT adjustment and plateau of 2018-2019, the pandemic dislocation and recovery of 2020-2022, and the rate-shock normalization since. Spring 2026 sits in a specific place relative to all of those.

The signals I find most significant:

• The condo-co-op divergence in Manhattan is the most pronounced I’ve seen. Not because co-ops are bad — they are not — but because the combination of tighter board financial requirements and a generation of buyers who have no frame of reference for how co-op approvals work has created an unusual window for prepared buyers who understand the process.

• The Westchester price-volume split is consistent with every prior period of rate-induced inventory constraint. It resolves one of two ways: rates fall and locked-in sellers decide the math works again, bringing more supply; or rates stay elevated and the constraint persists. The direction of resolution matters for buyers and sellers differently.

• The new development collapse in Manhattan is the signal I think is most underappreciated. The full analysis of the development supply shortage shows 81 units launched in Q1 2026, 75% below the 10-year average. This is structural, not cyclical. Resale condo prices will be supported by this shortage for years regardless of rate movements, and buyers waiting for a new development alternative that materializes are waiting for something that is not in the pipeline.

For buyers currently active in Manhattan, Brooklyn, or evaluating Westchester, here is where I think energy is best directed in spring 2026:

• Co-op buyers in Manhattan: if you qualify financially, this is one of the best entry windows in years. Less competition, more negotiating room, a meaningful price discount to condos. The board process has not changed; the competition for co-ops has.

• Condo buyers in Manhattan: supply is extremely tight. The new development option is largely not there. If you find the right resale unit at a price supported by recent comparable sales, don’t wait for more alternatives to appear — they are not appearing at volume.

• Brooklyn buyers: neighborhood matters more than the borough average. Bushwick and East New York offer leverage. Park Slope and Carroll Gardens do not. Know exactly where you are before you make an offer.

• Westchester evaluators: do the carrying cost math first, including property taxes. Do the commute once on a real workday. Then search. Buyers who have done those two things make decisions faster and with more confidence. The Brooklyn buyer leverage breakdown, the Manhattan showing observations, and the NYC-to-Westchester conversation patterns give more specific context for what each market looks like on the ground right now.

After 14 years and over 1,300 transactions, the consistent variable in buyer and seller outcomes is not timing. It is preparation and specificity.

The buyers who have done best in my experience are not the ones who bought at the perfect market bottom or sold at the perfect top. They are the ones who bought specific properties — right location, right building, right condition — with clear intentions, at prices supported by recent comparable sales, and held through the inevitable periods of macro noise.

The sellers who have done best are the ones who prepared their properties honestly, priced to the market rather than to aspiration, and let buyer competition do the work. The sellers who have done worst are the ones who tested the market at an aspirational price, watched the listing age, and then sold at a lower price after the damage of extended days on market.

Spring 2026 is a market that rewards that approach more than most. The bifurcation in Manhattan, the price-volume split in Westchester, and the composition-driven data in Brooklyn all mean that the average is less useful as a guide than it has been in smoother markets. The specific — the right block, the right building, the right price, the right preparation — is what produces the outcomes that matter.