Houlihan Lawrence’s Q1 2026 Westchester market report, released April 6, delivers a split story that requires careful reading. The headline transaction number looks soft. The price data is the opposite.

The 16% decline in single-family sales volume is real — but it is a supply story, not a demand story. Sellers are staying put, creating fewer listings. Buyers who find the right home are still competing for it. The implications for Westchester sellers in 2026 covers how to position a listing in this environment.

The most significant driver of the transaction volume decline is the rate lock-in effect: homeowners who refinanced at 2-3% during 2020-2021 are extremely reluctant to sell into a 6.3-6.5% mortgage environment. Moving means trading a low-rate mortgage for one that roughly doubles their monthly payment on a comparable property.

This has created a structural inventory problem across the market. Potential sellers are staying, which means fewer homes list, which means fewer homes sell. The homes that do come to market — estate sales, relocations, life events — face buyer competition because there is simply not enough supply to absorb demand at normal levels.

The migration dynamic adds another layer. NYC residents evaluating a move to Westchester — a trend amplified by Mayor Mamdani’s policy signals since his 2025 election win — represent a buyer pool with substantial equity from NYC sales. The NYC-to-Westchester migration signal looks at this in detail, and the observations from three Westchester listings this spring show how it is playing out in practice.

The Greater White Plains area is seeing some of the most active movement. White Plains and Greenburgh offer more price accessibility than Scarsdale and the Sound Shore towns, making them entry points for buyers who want Westchester but are stretching their NYC equity.